Scenarios — set every pressure at once
Nothing changes — today's pressures continue to 2050.
Pressures — click to isolate
70
Sorted & treatedBurned openly
11% of harm
85
Stable gridFull generator
10% of harm
75
Clean transitGridlock
7% of harm
80
TreatedRaw discharge
30% of harm
60
ReplantingBurning
17% of harm
70
ProtectedDumped
22% of harm
65
RestrainedUnchecked
4% of harm
What these choices cost
Held at these settings, 78,461 more people die early by 2050 than on a full clean-up path — and Beirut air ends at 42 µg/m³ instead of 7.
Cumulative 2026–2050, compared with every pressure brought down.
Regional condition monitor
Lebanon2026
Livability
61
Forest canopy
13.0% of land
Particulate PM2.5
28µg/m³
above safe limit
forest
burn scar
smog
fouled sea
live
2026PM2.5 28.0FOREST 13.0%WATER 45%COAST 40/100IRREVERSIBLE 1%
Two futures — premature deaths / year╌ BAU — yours
Deaths this year
2,893
BAU 2,893
Total since 2026
2,893
BAU 2,893
Lives spared
0
vs BAU, total
Irreversibilityrecoverable
Next lock-in aquifer & soil damage locked in 2032 · 6 yr
- Aquifer & soil damage locked — locks 2032
- Forest recovery beyond one lifetime — locks 2038
- Coastal ecosystem collapse locked — locks 2047
Environmentwhat changes outside
Air — PM2.5 Beirut
28.0µg/m³
WHO limit 5 · BAU 28
Safe drinking water
45% of people
BAU 45%
Forest cover
13.0% of land
BAU 13.0%
Coastline health
40/ 100
BAU 40
Human healthwhat it does to people
Respiratory illness
12.0% of adults
BAU 12.0%
Childhood asthma
16.0% of children
BAU 16.0%
Cancer incidence
224per 100,000
Lags exposure by years · BAU 224
Scenario readout
In 2026, under your settings, Beirut air sits at 28.0 µg/m³ — 5.6× the WHO guideline — 45% of people have safe water, and 2,893 people die early that year. 1% of the damage can no longer be undone.
A transparent model, not a forecast. 24-year horizon from 2026. Assumptions and baselines are listed on the methodology page.